- By Pierre-Alexandre
March 18th, 2019
The price of Bitcoin has risen past the $4,000 mark, and there is optimism amongst most cryptocurrency enthusiasts that the bottom has been reached and an upward trend could be achieved very soon.
#Bitcoin moving sideways in an up trend channel— Ali Zamani (@AliZamanim) March 18, 2019
I expect a break out to the downside
Bitcoin dropped from 4200$ to 3700$ in a matter of houres nobody said we are in a bear trend but it moves up slowly from 3700$ to 4000$ and everybody is talking about bottom and going to moon😀 pic.twitter.com/v7ixMDy2k1
BTC price could have bottomed out
The price of the leading cryptocurrency has been trading just above the $4,000 mark over the past few days, and this has led some market analysts and crypto enthusiasts to believe that it has reached the bottom.
The first sign of this is the fact that the BTC daily trading volume has been on the rise since the start of the month. At the moment, the daily trading volume is 150 percent higher than in October 2018. The average daily trading volume is at its highest level for 15 months now.
A crypto analyst on Twitter, Kevin Rooke, pointed out hat over the past 12 months, the BTC daily trading volume has surpassed the $10 billion mark only nine times, with five of them occurring in this month alone. The majority of others took place in February 2019, which is an indication that the trading volumes are gaining momentum.
Bitcoin's daily exchange volume is booming 🚀— Kevin Rooke (@kerooke) March 16, 2019
Volume has increased by ~150% in the last 5 months 📈
Average daily volume hasn't been this high since Jan 2018 👀
Only 9 days in the last 12 months had $10B+ in volume 💰
5 of those days have been in March 2019 🍀 pic.twitter.com/0VE9bX9iGQ
The increase in market activity over the past few weeks could be attributed to a broad range of factors such as the increase in awareness, usage, and adoption of Bitcoin, with leading institutions announcing Bitcoin and crypto related projects.
The increase in daily trading volume could also imply that fear of cryptos has drastically reduced recently and more people are willing to invest in Bitcoin.
Our Bitcoin Sentscore (general sentiment score for BTC) is back to the range it had before mid-November crash (around 6.5), while Bitcoin social sentiment is still oscillating in a low negativity-neutral zone.
Cant make this up. Bitcoin found the bottom $3215 right on its 12 month since ATH day followed by over a 30% pump.— Anondran (@anondran) March 16, 2019
Now Bitcoin is breaking out on its 15 months since ATH day.🤞 pic.twitter.com/kWW5wUQ3QO
Bitcoin halving coming up
The Bitcoin halving set to take place next year could be another reason behind its bottoming out. A look at Bitcoin's charts shows that in the last two bear cycles, the price of the cryptocurrency bottomed out a year before the halving event. With the halving set to occur in 2020, this could be the perfect time for the BTC price to reach its bottom and prepare for a Bull Run.
While the Bull Run might not start now, the BTC price reaching its base could set the tone for the market to embark on a slow recovery over the coming months.
Another Bitcoin chart shared on Reddit compared the current trend and those recorded in 2015 and 2018 after their respective Bull Runs:
The tables are looking similar, and if history is to repeat itself, then the BTC price could be bottoming out around this period. At the moment, the accumulation period should set in during which there would be little to no movement in the price before it began rising towards the end of the year, similar to what was recorded in 2015.
Even though history might not repeat itself, the fact that the BTC price has been holding up towards the $4,000 mark has convinced some crypto enthusiasts that the bottom has already been attained.
*Minor Correction...— Bo Polny (@Timing_BITCOIN) March 18, 2019
First they ignore you 🙅♂️
Then they laugh at you 😂
Then they fight you 👊
Then they 'SUDDENLY' realize they MISSED the bottom and painfully buy ₿itcoin at $10,000+! https://t.co/464gNaBGYh
#Bitcoin $BTC— ๑ PANDA ๑ (@PandaofBinance) March 17, 2019
$4311 (Bfx) or $4200 (Bstmp) is the neckline of a potential Adam and Eve bottom. the Notice the sharp&deep first bottom on high volume (Adam)&a second bottom (Eve) on lower volatility.
Completion of the pattern will spell an end to this 1.5 year bear market pic.twitter.com/OVXcPrmWZ8
Crypto winter might not be over yet
While the majority of the crypto community are convinced that we have reached the bottom and the prices could start rising, there are some who think that the BTC price is losing momentum following the recent rally and could plunge lower.
I know many think #Bitcoin bull market has begun— Crypto Capital Venture ⚡ (@cryptorecruitr) March 16, 2019
It has not happened from a technical perspective, and I am just being careful (It’s not the popular opinion).
Also always ready to accumulate
Here’s a picture of last bear market bottom for #BTC
Months of swing highs and lows pic.twitter.com/3cnfR8l1Sv
If that is the case, then the crypto winter is far from over.
Structure is a bit different right now. Looks like we're closer to Nov 2014 if anything. It took 273 days after bottom to break and stay above the 20 week MA. Seems like we're at least 6 months away from that. pic.twitter.com/akb3gH7m0g— Bitcoin Sicario (@bitcoinsicario) March 18, 2019
According to analysts at Bloomberg, the long-term buying demand for BTC is decreasing, pointing to the fact that the selling pressure could increase over the coming weeks. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has been on the decline since last month despite the BTC price recording gains for the first time in months.
The analysis added that the cryptocurrency’s average daily gain has also declined from last month to early this month, which could imply that the rally is about to come to a stop. In February, BTC recorded its first monthly gain in seven months, with average daily prices all moving towards the green zone in the first two months of 2019.
I want to guess the winning number too. So I call yearly low of 2019 and bottom of the bear market $2,469.22. Hopefully everyone's dead wrong and we go moon, but better to be prepared. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/ckZu715VNh— Bart Simpson (@CryptoBartSimps) March 16, 2019
Bitcoin has been unable to surpass the $4,000 mark comfortably, and until that resistance level has been breached, the price could continue to experience some pressure. Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, noted that the crypto market is ready to experience another drop in prices. He compares the current conditions with that experienced in November before the prices crashed.
McGlone explained that the 20 percent gain by BTC since the start of the year is not a bad performance. However, investors see more potential in the smaller altcoins, he added, with some of these tokens recording significant gains over the past few weeks.
To support the theory, the report noted that Ethereum is up by 60 percent since December, while Litecoin has recorded a gain of more than 150 percent during that period. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is only up by 23 percent since mid-December.
However, the analysis by Bloomberg could be wrong as the BTC price has been able to hold on to its price above the $4,000 mark over the past few days. While the analysts claimed that buying demand has decreased, the BTC daily trading volume has been above the $10 billion mark for more days this month than in any other month since early last year. This is an indication that investors are still very much interested in Bitcoin despite rising interest for other altcoins.
$BTC - Number of Unspent Transaction Outputs. You could argue the rising number of #UTXO could be signaling a #Bitcoin bottom where more and more people are holding in the market. pic.twitter.com/287HrBPTWD— Visionary Finance (@VisionaryFinanc) March 13, 2019
An interesting thread about an estimated $2.3 billion inflow in the market to keep Bitcoin's price level:
It's funny how people say #BTC is a "Bear market". That might be true... if it were zero supply like a fixed stock.— Lightning Master Hub ⚡ [BTC LTC] (@LN_Master_Hub) March 5, 2019
But it's not. In the last 12 months approx 657,000 new #Bitcoin.
To maintain $3500 bottom for 12 months, that takes $2.3 BILLION of *NEW* investment.
CBOE has announced they will stop offering Bitcoin futures contracts
See a bunch of high timeframe bitcoin charts trending guessing if this is the bottom or not.— Lord Catoshi (@LordCatoshi) March 1, 2019
Doesn't really matter.
You can choose to:
1) average in from now
2) go in when uptrend is confirmed
Yes, you can also buy the bottom genius.
But did you sell the top?